JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the belief that the U.S. economy will boom for a long time is a “huge mistake.”
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told a financial conference in New York on Monday that people who assume that the U.S. economy will continue to boom for years on the back of consumer strength are making “a huge mistake.”
Mr. Dimon made the remarks at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Sept. 11, at which he warned of a number of risks to the economy, including the Ukraine war, monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and increasing reliance on government spending.
“To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you are going to have a booming environment for years, is a huge mistake,” he said.
The booming economy narrative rose to prominence in recent months, driven by strong retail sales and wage growth, while recession fears have eased. But there are signs that the recent rise in consumer sentiment has been short-lived and that the economy is facing some headwinds.
Consumer Strength Weakening?
Consumer spending, which represents roughly 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, posted solid growth in July, the latest month of available data. However, economists widely expect the past year of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes to weigh more heavily on domestic demand.
The latest data on retail sales showed that Americans spent more than expected in July, splurging on hobbies, sporting goods, and clothing, prompting economists at Goldman Sachs to raise their third-quarter gross domestic product estimate by seven-tenths of a percentage point to a 2.2 percent annualized rate.
However, there are signs that the boom may not last as the latest consumer tracker for August from Deloitte says that financial well-being sentiment has stagnated, with the percentage of consumers worried about savings and postponing big purchases on the rise, while spending intentions “remain on a long-term downtrend.”
A separate barometer of consumer confidence from the Conference Board found that, after a sharp uptick in July, its gauge retreated to a reading “a hair above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year.”
By Tom Ozimek
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