Researchers claimed that no animals were identified as the ‘natural or intermediary host of the virus’ unlike earlier reports.
The COVID-19 virus had an “unnatural” origin, with a high probability that it came from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), a recent study concluded.
The peer-reviewed study, published in the journal Risk Analysis on March 15, used a risk analysis tool to determine the origin of the COVID-19 virus. The analysis found a 68 percent likelihood of an “unnatural than natural origin of SARS-CoV-2.” Although the study did not definitely prove the origin of the COVID-19 virus, its authors stressed that “the possibility of a laboratory origin cannot be easily dismissed.”
Since the outbreak began in December 2019, animal sources and the lab leak have been the two key hypotheses for the origin. While a wide range of animals, including bats, have been suspected to have been the source of the virus, “no animal has yet been identified as the natural or intermediary host of the virus,” researchers noted.
“One of the closest known bat coronaviruses, RaTG13, was being studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and has 96.1 percent homology with SARS-CoV-2.” Homology refers to the similarity between different organisms that could suggest a common ancestor. “The existence and sequence of this virus were not known until after the COVID-19 pandemic began.”
For the study, researchers used a modified Grunow–Finke tool (mGFT), an epidemiologic risk analysis tool that differentiates between natural epidemics and deliberate biological attacks.
The authors collected COVID-19 data by country from Jan. 1, 2020, to Oct. 31, 2022, and evaluated it using the mGFT tool based on 11 criteria—biorisk, unusual strain, geographic distribution, environmental concentration, epidemic intensity, transmission mode, time, unusually rapid spread, population limitation, clinical manifestation, and special insights.
“Using the modified GFT algorithm, the result shows a total of 41 points (68 percent) out of the maximum 60 points, indicating the SARS-CoV-2 is more likely from an unnatural origin,” the study authors wrote.
Researchers pointed out that lab accidents are “common” and that if the pathogen is highly contagious, just one infected worker could trigger an epidemic.
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