Both Escaped the Worst
by F. Andrew Wolf, Jr.
July 13, 2024 is not a date many will soon forget in America. Former President Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassin’s bullet. Yet, this date will also resonate in the consciousness of Americans for another reason.
Former President Trump was not the only one to narrowly escape the worst. That is potentially true for the United States as well.
What if the worst had happened? What would the repercussions have been, otherwise?
Most Americans would recognize “Fort Sumter,” as the place where in 1861 the South fired on the North to begin the Civil War. At the war’s end at least three-quarters of a million Americans (excluding civilians) were dead – about 2% of the then US population.
The small community of Butler, Pennsylvania with less than 14,000 inhabitants, may just have missed its chance to acquire a similar dark place in history. It was during a campaign rally on the grounds of the Butler Farm Show – an amusement park – that former and quite possibly future American president Donald Trump escaped death by, quite literally, inches.
Would-be presidential assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks unleashed several rounds from his weapon – one of which tore through Trump’s right ear. Several others were severely injured and in one case killed.
Crooks, subsequently killed by security forces, obtained unbelievable proximity to the former president. Positioned atop the roof of a building, he was a mere 120 to 150 meters away
from where Trump was speaking on a raised stage.
That the president survived the attempt is remarkable to say the least. And from this point on, the stories, theories and half truths about what really happened, who was involved and was there any money and power behind it will abound. And this brings us to the other narrow escape – that of the United States.
It was not only Trump who had a very lucky escape in Butler. The United States, itself, avoided what might have been a terribly destructive consequence had the worst occurred. Consider for a moment, what would America look like today, if Trump had not survived?
Initially, it is fair to assume, there would be a period of shock in America. Yet, while many Americans would be genuinely stunned and sincerely aggrieved. There are others who would respond otherwise – especially those who have consistently demonized Trump as well as his supporters. Put simply, if Trump had not been as fortunate, America’s political polarization would not have given way to some patriotic plea for harmony. The polarization is too fervent – it is too clearly defined.
Where would such an escalation of polarization lead? Consider some recent, well-established findings. A major survey and study by a group of political scientists – published in 2022 under the title “Views of American Democracy and Society and Support for Political Violence” found that 50% of Americans agree to some extent with the statement that “in the next few years, there could be civil war in the United States.”
The ”Views” study showed that 36% of the respondents – 56% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats – agreed that ”the traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it;” while 18% found that ”because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.”
We will never know, of course, what exactly would have happened if Donald Trump had been assassinsted. But it would be irresponsible to discount the possibility that such an assassination, in a country as politically polarized as the US, could have manifested in significant displays of extremist behavior.
Conspiracy theorists and many experts on “civil war” will contend that the assassination of the former president (beloved by so many of his supporters) could have played a role in America sliding into civil war – again. This writer thinks not.
Yes, there are dire prophecies suggesting the worst, as we saw earlier, buttressed to some extent by public opinion.
Irrespective of the “expert opinions,” this country has a ways to go before we shutter ourselves in our homes. Most Americans still share a fundamental respect for rule of law and institutions, a respect nurtured over 200 years of history. The vast majority of Americans are not on the violent fringes; rather, they live their lives and raise their children believing in the basic expectations (whether that occurs or not)
and benefits (whether they eventuate or not) of democratic society.
Moreover, Americans will neither forget the legacy of a hard earned freedom we enjoy (including the right to rebel) nor collapse the American experiment (as irresponsible and as corrupt as its system of government has become). Civil war will not occur even with the assassination of a president (even one as popular with his constituents as Trump). Will there be conflict and more violent incidents ahead? Yes, probably. Sustained warfare or guerrilla insurrection? Not yet.
But equally true is that this is no time for complacency, either. My concern is that our political system no longer functions. Government has become thwarted through its own selfishness, incapable of pursuing the common good and implacably spiteful.
The process of governing has deteriorated such that it encourages neither considered thought nor a willingness to work together; rather, prevailing over one’s enemies is rewarded – its what counts today in government.
This manifests enormous resentment and frustration in the American voter. If working within the system does not improve one’s plight, Americans will at some point reject the system. If meaningful, tangible results for the good are not forthcoming from elected officials, Americans will lose faith in the ballot box. And once they feel beguiled and no longer valued by Washington, anger and disillusionment will occur. Institutions will not be valued because there will be no confidence in them. Americans can at that point turn to alternatives for solutions and that can include demagogues. It is an ill functioning government – not an assassination – that we should fear.
With that eventuation – all bets are off. Anything could and might very well occur…including civil war – perhaps, God forbid, even the end of the American experiment.