In 2020, Erie County, Pa., voted for President Joe Biden by just 1 percent, with its independent voting bloc likely to determine election results.
ERIE, Pa.—Thousands turned out to the Bayfront Convention Center on Sept. 29 to hear former President Donald Trump speak. Hundreds more gathered outside the convention center to watch Trump’s speech on a jumbo display, while nearby stands were set up to register voters, hawk mail-in ballots, and hand out Trump-Vance yard signs and bumper stickers.
There’s a reason for that: Erie County, which hosts the city of Erie, is a strong indicator of who will win Pennsylvania. Since 1980, with the exception of 1988, the county has backed the winner of statewide presidential races.
While it doesn’t rise to the level of a national bellwether—it’s often backed candidates who went on to lose the general election—since 2008, it’s ultimately backed the candidate who won Pennsylvania.
That makes it a crucial county in 2024, when the winner of Pennsylvania is highly expected by pundits to win the entire election.
As recently as 2008 and 2012, the Democratic Party was king in the county: In his election and reelection bid, President Barack Obama won the county by 20 points and 16.9 points respectively. But in 2016, Trump shifted the county by 18.5 points in Republicans’ favor, and won the county by 1.6 percent.
In 2020, reflecting the razor-thin margins of the election in the state and nationwide, President Joe Biden carried the county by just 1 percent, or 1,417 votes.
The changing politics can be attributed in part to the area’s cultural and demographic background.
A few hours’ drive north of Pittsburgh, Erie County sits at the northwestern end of Pennsylvania, bordering the Great Lake of the same name, upstate New York, and Ohio.
The city of Erie, home to large immigrant and university student populations, is Pennsylvania’s fifth most populous, lying at the northern edge of the county. Beyond that, the area has several suburban areas and developments. The southern half of the county is largely rural, home to several scattered, small townships.
The county’s Rust Belt origins are on full display in Erie, with defunct factories and industrial centers dotting the city and its environs.
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