Many have been sold on the science of climate change. For many, it ranks at the top of humanity’s biggest concern. However, have any of these same people considered the possibility that this new green revolution could even happen?
To fuel the new green revolution, it will take a lot of metals that will need to be mined for many of the technologies dreamed of to materialize. Much of these metals come from massive open-pit mines across the world. The world’s largest open-pit mines are on every continent. They are formed through years-long mining for minerals extracted through open mining. It’s one of the simplest and cheapest ways to extract limestone, diamond, iron ore, coal, as well as other minerals found in the upper layers of the Earth’s crust.
These mines are made artificially and exist only as long as they are maintained. Mining minerals in open-pit mines without mine shafts is a method used worldwide. The idea of open-pit mining is that the dead rock layers towards the surface conceal minerals that would be found in horizontal layers in mines. Check out these open mines in the video below.
Mark Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a Faculty Fellow at the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science at Northwestern University. He also serves on the Advisory Board of Notre Dame Reilly Center for Science Technology and Values and is a strategic partner in Cotton Venture Partners, a boutique venture fund. He addresses the mining realities of the new green agenda.
Regardless of whether the science of climate change is valid and even forgetting the astronomical costs it may take, Mill lays out that the green energy transition is a delusion because of the inescapable mineral mining realities. His arguments are laid out in the series of charts below.
The first real point that must be examined is the volume of required mining materials. In the chart below, focus on the EV component of the chart and see that the required volume of minerals for EVs will be more than 400% compared to what we produce today.
Looking at specific minerals, the chart below shows the multiplier in terms of the volumes of minerals needed. For example, we will need 42 times the amount of Lithium that is produced today.
Since the volume increases of required minerals are massive, below is a chart of copper (other minerals have similar charts) in terms of supply and demand, along with the currently planned mines. In the very short future, the shortfall will be massive, and for certain, the cost will become astronomical.
![IEA: 100's of New Mines Needed, Soon - Will the looming [cooper] supply gap short-circuit the energy transition?"](https://www.thethinkingconservative.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Mines-Needs-Forecast.jpg)
Finally, as the old story goes, one can not get nine women to have a baby in a month. There are certain realities of bringing a new mining resource online. Below is a chart showing the length of time required to bring a specific mine into production.
The bottom line is that the new green agenda will be virtually impossible, given the current mining forecasts and its possibilities even to achieve. Check out more details from Mark Mills’s video discussion below from a SKAGEN Funds New Year’s Conference in 2023, where the charts above were obtained.
Again, regardless of your views on the science of climate change, is the new green energy transition many have dreamed of a practical reality (even ignoring the costs) when faced with the physical abilities to mine the minerals required? Significant new technologies that are not even on the horizon will be required.
For those that look at the politics of all this – the new green agenda, believers are most likely delusional. Give us your take in the comment section below.
By Tom Williams
