China is on track to have 700 deliverable nuclear missiles by 2027 and could have as many as 1,000 by 2030, according to a new report by the Pentagon.
“Over the next decade, the PRC [People’s Republic of China] aims to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces,” the report reads.
“The PRC is investing in, and expanding, the number of its land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces.”
Representatives from the Department of Defense delivered the annual report, colloquially referred to as the China Military Power Report, to Congress on Nov. 3.
The report outlines Beijing’s strategy to achieve a “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049, the 100th anniversary of communist rule in China, and the role of nuclear weapons in that strategy.
A Growing Stockpile
The 2020 China Military Power Report assessed that China had approximately 200 nuclear weapons in total and that it had the capability to double that number over the next decade.
The new report has raised that estimate to an expected five-fold increase by 2030, and it states that China will have at least 200 land-based nuclear missiles capable of hitting the United States within five years.
Reasons for this increase in estimation cited by the report include new investments in nuclear energy infrastructure, efforts to double the number of launchers in some missile units, and the discovery of several sites suspected by the United States of housing nuclear missile silos.
“The PRC has commenced building at least three solid-fueled ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missiles] silo fields, which will cumulatively contain hundreds of new ICBM silos,” the report reads.
The report also states that China’s new nuclear energy efforts could cross-function as a means of developing the extra plutonium needed for the desired nuclear weapons buildup.
“The PRC is constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this force expansion, including increasing its capacity to produce and separate plutonium by constructing fast breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities,” the report reads. “Though this is consistent with the PRC goal of closing the nuclear fuel cycle, the PRC likely intends to use some of this infrastructure to produce plutonium for its expanding nuclear weapons program.
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DOD 2021 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PDF)
2021-CMPR-FINAL
