The model also predicts that Republicans are favored to score a trifecta, also taking the Senate and keeping the House.
Election reporting service Decision Desk on Wednesday released its first forecast for the 2024 presidential election, putting the odds of a win by former President Donald Trump at 58 percent—despite President Joe Biden enjoying an incumbency advantage and bigger war chest.
In order to win the race for the White House, a candidate must secure 270 of the 538 available Electoral College votes. With less than six months to go until the November presidential election, Decision Desk has released its first forecast, which predicts that President Trump will get 282 electoral votes compared to President Biden’s 256.
This corresponds to a 58 percent chance of a Trump victory, compared to a 42 percent chance for President Biden.
At this stage of the race, Decision Desk has President Trump slated to clinch 235 electoral votes compared to President Biden’s 226, with 77 votes up for grabs.
The forecast currently puts Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as the six toss-up states where the two candidates will vie for the 77 electoral votes.
“Although the fundamentals of the race—including the incumbency advantage, campaign fundraising levels, and many macroeconomic factors—generally favor Biden, both national and swing state polls give Trump a clear edge,” the service wrote in a post on X.
While the Decision Desk model incorporates the latest data and trends, the election reporting service notes that its forecasts are “not certainties but possibilities.”
The Decision Desk model also predicts that Republicans are favored to score a trifecta, with an 80 percent chance of taking the Senate and a 64 percent chance of keeping the House, along with the 58 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Most Expensive Election Cycle In History
While President Biden’s 2024 campaign’s fundraising in April lagged that of President Trump for the first time this election cycle, the Democrat incumbent still maintains an overall cash advantage over his Republican rival.
The former president clinched the Republican nomination in March and can now raise money with the Republican National Committee (RNC). The Trump campaign and the RNC raised $76 million in April, outpacing the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) haul of $51 million.
By Tom Ozimek
