Late last year there was a dialogue between leading aggregators and pundits of polling on the redoubtable Richard Baris’ X site “The People’s Pundit” which debated the merits of polling subsets of minority voters, especially Blacks. The highly merited conclusion was that since such subsets contain a comparatively small number of participants little valid judgements could be made as to their relevance as a pointer to how such groups would actually vote.
That this conclusion was indeed highly merited, as the data from polls of Blacks who advised they would vote for Trump showed, which ranged from a preposterous 4% (Civiqs Daily Kos) a number that John McCain received in 2008, and 8 points below what Trump was reported to have received in 2020, To a majestic, for Trump supporters, 40% (Zogby.)
To see if an aggregation of such polls could produce not only the number of polls and a substantial number of Blacks for Trump within those polls to make a number which reflected reality in relation to Trumps general polling, I commenced a study of available polling date back to December 2023. I was particular lucky to have found a poll from that month from the University of Chicago’s ‘GenForward’, that specialized in Black voters and which polled 3,448 Blacks as to their voting preference.
Clearly such a number would satisfy all requirements as to volume, the result 17%, or a fifth advised they would vote for Trump. That 17% gave an indication of Black voters shifting to Trump, not necessarily the Republican Party, and would be in keeping with the 4 point increments to the GOP since 2008 from the 4% nadir.
But how did their result measure up with the aggregate of all such polls was the question. I was particularly fortunate that the December to February polling period, which concomitantly was a period of a rise in Trump’s general support, produced a large number of pollsters who produced subsets. I found a total of 27 polls whose aggregate for Black vote for Trump was 20.9%. Again, there was wide variation between polls, but generally the majority ranged within a few points plus or minus of the GenForward result with the plus side being more prevalent.
In March I found only 7 Subset of Black voters polling, and even though the numbers were so low as to normally be disregarded, the aggregate result 19.1% was remarkable in its consistency with the large number from December to February.
The polling for April, 14 subsets of Black voter polls Trump 18%, was particularly striking and in my opinion has so bedded in the current Black vote intention above Trump’s 2020 actual, that if it comes to fruition in November the effects on the election, and all subsequent elections going forward, would be profound. Further the April subsets included polling from recognized high standard pollsters such as I&I/TIPP 29% NYTimes Siena 16% PEW 18% Rasmussen 21%.
That the April Result of aggregate 18% was below the December/February aggregate of 20.9% again gives confidence that what has been found has a basis in reality. The early findings where during a period of Trump ascendancy and a particularly bad patch for Biden. The later findings included a period of Biden’s “comeback” i.e. the ending of the primaries for all intents and purposes and a natural return of some Democratic Party elements to Biden’s support.
That that has happened, and the Black Trump vote intent is still 6 points above his 2020 total, is a key finding, as is the reported shift of young Blacks (and surprisingly even a small shift of Black women) to Trump is a sign of monumental danger for Biden. To lose, even the 4-point increment to 16% in November, plus stay at homes plus whatever Cornel West and RFK jr. might pick up would presage disaster in the urban centers of the key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. If that happened, then the generational shift of young Blacks, if permanent, would make the Dems Electoral College path extremely doubtful for future elections.
