There will be 34 U.S. Senate seats on ballots across the nation in November 2024, including 20 held by Democrats, three by independents, and 11 by Republicans.
Of the 20 seats now held by incumbent Democrats, at least eight are in states defined as “competitive” in initial assessments by elections ratings services such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections, with three Senate Democrats in states won by former President Donald Trump in 2020—West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.
Of the 11 U.S. Senate seats held by GOP incumbents, all are in states rated as securely red although Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz is seeking a third term, is regarded by Inside Elections as a “battleground Republican” state where a Democrat is expected to be competitive. Also, Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), if he chooses to run, could face a stiff primary challenge.
The three independent Senate incumbents all caucus with the Democrats with two—Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont—heavily favored to be reelected (although Sanders has not formally said he will run in 2024).
The third independent, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, elected in 2018 as a Democrat before leaving the party in December 2022, has not announced her 2024 intentions.
If Sinema seeks reelection, the 2024 Arizona U.S. Senate election could be a tight three-way race. A strong field of Democrat and Republican hopefuls are already tossing their hats into primary races in this purple state.
Therefore, mere math gives Republicans confidence heading into the 2024 elections that they can gain control of the chamber now led by Democrats, 51-49.
While all 11 GOP-held Senate seats appear “safe” or nearly so, as many as nine of the 23 incumbent Democrats/Independents could be in for difficult reelections.
Of course, with more than seven months to go before the first presidential primary—some states stage presidential primaries separately from preliminaries for the rest of the election slate—the 2024 campaign season is in its infancy; filling deadlines in some states are still months away.
By John Haughey
