No, Trump Rallies Didn’t Increase Hate Crimes by 226 Percent In fact, they didn’t have any detectable impact at all

In the aftermath of August’s mass shooting in El Paso, a cursory glance at the news might have left you with the impression that there were two villains that day: the white supremacist who viciously killed 22 people and wounded 24 more, and President Donald Trump, who supposedly incited him.

“The president cannot be absolved of responsibility for inciting the hatreds that led to El Paso,” read a New York Times piece. Democratic presidential contenders echoed this sentiment, with Beto O’Rourke saying Trump’s rhetoric “has a lot to do with” the shooting and Kamala Harris alleging that Trump was “tweeting out the ammunition” used by the El Paso shooter.

Blaming the words of controversial politicians for the acts of terrorists and lunatics without hard evidence is not new. However, a recent academic paper, reported on by numerous outlets before it went through the peer-review process, suggests that Trump actually is to blame.

Studying the effects of Trump’s many campaign rallies on reported hate incidents, three professors at the University of North Texas and Texas A&M—Ayal Feinberg, Regina Branton, and Valerie Martinez-Ebers—claim that Trump rallies are associated with a 226 percent increase in such incidents.

Naturally, their study went viral. Vox, The Washington Post, the San Francisco Chronicle, and CNN all published articles reporting that Trump’s words are so bad that exposure to them leads to a wave of hate crimes.

Once again, Democratic politicians piled on. “Your language creates a climate which emboldens violent extremists,” wrote Sen. Bernie Sanders (I–Vt.) in a social media post. “Your rhetoric is directly and indirectly inciting hate, Mr. President,” tweeted Rep. Ilhan Omar (D–Minn.).

Is that where the story ends? Not quite. Using the same data and statistical procedures as Feinberg et al., we replicated their study’s headline result. Since we did not have access to the original paper’s data and code, this involved collecting each of the variables mentioned in the original paper, and then independently performing the same analysis. Wherever possible, we copied the decisions that are mentioned in the original paper. Our headline results were very close to those reported in the original paper.

The Thinking Conservative
The Thinking Conservativehttps://www.thethinkingconservative.com/
The goal of THE THINKING CONSERVATIVE is to help us educate ourselves on conservative topics of importance to our freedom and our pursuit of happiness. We do this by sharing conservative opinions on all kinds of subjects, from all types of people, and all kinds of media, in a way that will challenge our perceptions and help us to make educated choices.

Columns

Why States Are Pausing Cage-Free Mandates During Bird Flu Crisis

As U.S. continues a protracted battle with bird flu, some states are temporarily rolling back laws governing how egg-laying hens are housed.

Shifting Gears 2025

That grinding you hear is the sound of the Democrat party hopelessly stuck in first gear while Trump and Republicans zoom ahead of them in overdrive.

More Proof, the Democratic Party is Imploding!

Jason Pizzo, the leading Democrat in the Florida Senate announced his departure from the Democratic Party saying he sees the party as dead in Florida.

American Psychiatric Association vs. MAHA: Shots Fired

When Trump formed the MAHA Commission, the parameters were so reasonable that it was hard to imagine how the biomedical establishment could object.

Evaluating Foreign Affairs’ Warning About The Risks Of An Emboldened & Remilitarized Germany

Foreign Affairs warned earlier this month that an emboldened...

News

US Attorney General Releases Details on New Mexico Judge’s Arrest

AG Pam Bondi provided details about former NM judge’s arrest for allegedly allowing an illegal immigrant and suspected TdA gang member to live at his residence.

Thousands of Illegal Immigrants Have Registered on CBP Home App to Self-Deport, CBP Says

DHS said thousands of illegal immigrants registered on CBP Home app to self-deport, and those who have not yet done so will face consequences.

5 Things We Know About Wisconsin Judge’s Arrest for Allegedly Obstructing ICE

Court papers detail Judge Hannah Dugan was arrested for allowing an illegal immigrant to escape through a jury door before arrest by federal officials.

ICE Backtracks on Revoking More Than 1,200 Student Visas

ICE reversed decision to automatically revoke student visas, after State Dept said it would use AI to review foreign students’ records for criminal activity or arrests.

Court Ruling Limits Ozempic Copies in Favor of FDA, Novo Nordisk

Federal court ruled against trade group representing compounding pharmacies, siding with FDA and Novo Nordisk in dispute over copies of Ozempic and Wegovy.

Judge Blocks Removal of Potential Deportees From Texas District

Federal judge temporarily restrained Trump admin from removing individuals from Southern District of Texas in attempt to deport Venezuelan gang members under the Alien Enemies Act.

Former Rep. George Santos Sentenced to More Than 7 Years in Prison

Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) was sentenced on April 25 to more than 7 years in federal prison on wire fraud and aggravated identity theft charges.

FBI Arrests Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan Over Obstructing, Kash Patel Says

FBI arrested a Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, circuit judge for allegedly assisting an illegal immigrant in evading arrest, FBI Director Kash Patel said.
spot_img

Related Articles