No, Trump’s Presence In The Midterms Is Not “Risky” For The GOP

People's Pundit

Without Trump, The GOP Struggles To Turnout Voters

How short our collective political memories are. Here we are in September, and many of the same arguments we’ve heard for the last three cycles are resurfacing just in time to influence the narrative before the pivot to the post-Labor Day period.

Unsurpringly, it’s coming from the usual suspects.

Let’s address some of those specifically, most notably a few arguments outlined by Nate Silver.

“Upset Democratic special election wins in Alaska and New York over the past two weeks are the latest sign that the political environment might be unusual for a midterm election.”

Nonsense. Total nonsense.

In the Alaska at-large special election, the advantage in Republican primary vote share was twice the margin Trump won the state with in 2020, and dwarfed the 36.8% total Democratic primary share of the vote.

As all these “forecasters” know, this was the first time the state implemented rank choice voting. The referendum was pushed by a coalition of Democrats and Establishment Republicans desperately manuevering to insulate incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski from certain primary defeat at the hands of Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka.

It worked, plain and simple, and more than 60% of Alaskan voters will now be representated by someone they otherwise never would’ve voted for, even if it is only for a few months.

It might be convienant for a liberal analyst cheering on Democrats to cite Mary Peltola’s win as an example of “Republicans losing steam” or Trump being “risky for the GOP”, but it’s also extremely dishonest.

As far as NY-19, we’ll come back to that in a bit.

“The past four special elections โ€” two in New York, one in Alaska and one in Minnesota โ€” all occurred after the seizure on Aug. 8, and they all showed excellent results for Democrats. And Democrats have actually gained about a point on the generic ballot since then, although itโ€™s a small enough difference that it could be statistical noise.”

Let’s first deal with the polling.

Perhaps Democrats are gaining. But says who, the pollsters who routinely overstate Democratic support on the generic ballot, most recently in 2020 and 2018?

The RealClearPolitics final average for the House vote was Democrats +6.8% in 2020. That polling fueled a “consensus” narrative among forecasters expecting Democrats to expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives by as many as 15 seats.

How many seats did they win in 2020?

By Richard Baris

Read Full Article on PeoplesPundit.Locals.com

The Thinking Conservative
The Thinking Conservativehttps://www.thethinkingconservative.com/
The goal of THE THINKING CONSERVATIVE is to help us educate ourselves on conservative topics of importance to our freedom and our pursuit of happiness. We do this by sharing conservative opinions on all kinds of subjects, from all types of people, and all kinds of media, in a way that will challenge our perceptions and help us to make educated choices.

Columns

Easterโ€™s Christian hunt

Easter isn't another benevolent Sunday. It's the holy remembrance of the salvific victory Jesus Christ had over death and is the defining moment in human history.ย 

The 9-11 Commission Report to Be Revisited?

Trump Admin should reopen an investigation of events of 9/11 as it appears it was a criminal act to conceal theft of trillions of taxpayer dollars!

Legal Battles, Accusations of Bias as Americaโ€™s Public Media Faces Uncertain Future

Voice of America says it shares a message of freedom and hope, while the Trump administration calls it โ€˜radical propaganda.โ€™

Are Liberal Democrats Faking Things These Days?

The โ€œFighting Oligarchyโ€ rally in Nampa, Idaho has even AI applications confirming suspicions the video of AOC and her new bogus accent are doctored.

Congress Is Looking at Medicaidโ€”What to Know

Medicaid serves nearly a quarter of the U.S. population,...

News

ACLU Seeks Immediate Stay From Supreme Court of Deportation of Alleged Gang Members

ACLU filed an emergency request asking the Supreme Court to immediately block the Trump administration from deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members.

What to Know About the Florida State University Campus Shooting

Florida State Univ became a deadly crime scene as a student opened fire, killing two and injuring six others before he was shot and apprehended by law enforcement.

Judge Bars Trump Admin From Deporting Illegal Immigrants to Third Countries Without Warning or Torture Review

Federal judge barred Trump admin from deporting illegal immigrants with final removal orders to countries they would face persecution, torture, or death.

Supreme Court Justice Denies Emergency Appeal to Halt Deportation of 4 Illegal Immigrants

Supreme Court denied emergency appeal from four Mexican nationals who entered US illegally and want high court to temporarily bar their removal proceedings.

New York AG James Says Mortgage Fraud Allegations Are Baseless

Letitia James responded to a letter sent by a Trump admin official referring her for prosecution over alleged mortgage fraud, saying claims โ€œare baseless.โ€

Sen. Van Hollen Meets With Abrego Garcia in El Salvador

Sen. Chris Van Hollen met in El Salvador with Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran illegal immigrant deported due to what DOJ called an administrative error.

House China Committee Urges Bank of America, JPMorgan to Withdraw From CATL IPO

House China Committee urges Bank of America, and JPMorgan to withdraw from CATL IPO as CATL has been designated as a โ€œChinese military company".

FBI Director: Over 6,000 Arrested Since Jan. 20 in Immigration Enforcement

FBI Dir Kash Patel said agency detained and arrested over 6,000 individuals in its immigration enforcement efforts in first months of Trump admin.
spot_img

Related Articles