Being perceived as weak on supporting Israel appears to be a growing problem for Democrats seeking re-election.
WASHINGTON—Republicans looking to recapture the Senate in November think an apparently accelerating shift among Jewish voters from the Democrats to the GOP could significantly boost their candidates in battleground races.
Voting data going back to 1912 compiled by the American-Israeli Cooperative Enterprise (AICE) shows a marked shift in Jewish voting beginning with the 2016 presidential balloting as Republican Donald Trump won 26 percent, compared to the average of 23.75 percent for the four previous GOP presidential candidates.
President Trump increased his share of the Jewish vote by an additional four points to 30 percent in 2020.
More recently, an early April I&I/TIPP Poll survey of 1,400 registered voters on President Joe Biden’s “shift away from Israel” since the Oct. 7 Hamas massacre found a marked partisan shift, with 55 percent of Republicans saying they strongly or mostly disagree and 56 percent of Democrats strongly or mostly agreeing.
Historically, support for Israel among U.S. voters has been overwhelmingly bipartisan, especially whenever the Middle East’s only democratic government has been under attack.
Republican campaign strategists say the evidence is still mostly anecdotal, however, they see shifting among Jewish voters as a major plus heading into the 2024 Senate campaigns, made even more intense by the sudden explosion of openly anti-Semitic campus protests and President Biden’s vacillating support of Israel following the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attacks that killed more than 1,200 Israelis.
The GOP needs to gain only one seat to get to a 50–50 split and two gains to reverse the Democrats’ present 51–49 advantage.
A senior Senate Republican campaign strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Epoch Times that while the most recent evidence of an accelerating shift of Jewish voters from Democrat to Republican is indeed anecdotal, it is definitely a consideration in key battleground states.
“Nevada has the largest Jewish voting population on a per capita basis, while Pennsylvania has the highest number, then Wisconsin,” the strategist said.
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