Short-term benefits with long-term consequences

It is interesting to observe how the approaching inauguration of Donald Trump is causing those, who just a couple of months ago were recklessly betting on an overwhelming victory for the Democrats in the US elections, to fuss. According to the Independent, the Prime Minister of Great Britain Keir Starmer has found himself in an awkward situation. While the population of his country advocates for strengthening ties with the EU and distancing itself from the US, and Labour activists and politicians tries to figure out how to justify their open support for Kamala Harris and insults to Donald Trump, Starmer has to balance in order to demonstrate toughness in relations with the future owner of the White House, but also not to harm relations between the two countries.

At the same time, British politicians should be more grateful to Donald Trump. His return to power has allowed London to create the image of a villain against whom the entire region needs to unite. Because of that the results of elections in Ireland could not have been better for Great Britain. Out of fears of a second Trump’s term, the Irish had elected a moderate centrist government consisting of two parties that openly stating their intention to maintain the status quo in relations with London. The reason for this is, among other things, Britain’s broad information campaign, aimed primarily at intimidating the population of Ireland with Trump’s tariff policy and making it more accommodating in confronting the separatist opposition movement Sinn Fein.

Earlier this summer, despite its best efforts, the UK government failed to make a significant impact on voters in Northern Ireland, letting Sinn Fein to become the largest party in the autonomous region’s House of Commons for the first time, following similar party’s success in the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly and 2023 local elections. Even though Sinn Fein had only marginally strengthened its position, the Unionists’ failure has seriously complicated Britain’s regional policy. Now the balance has been restored, and London has a new reason to insist on unification, which will give it greater confidence in confronting separatist sentiments in the unstable region.

At the same time, no one should forget that solving their internal and regional problems at the expense of third countries and politicians can lead to serious consequences. Any statements by British representatives, both those already made and those to come, will be assessed by the White House and will inevitably affect Washington’s relations with London.

In the current circumstances, the Irish can only be wished patience and fortitude. Behind the increased attention to diplomacy and economics, there is always an unnoticed social policy that often has the greatest impact on the lives of ordinary people. While the British media accuses Trump of right-wing radicalism and nationalism, the real concern is caused by the scandals occurring in the UK.

By Martin Averick

Martin Averick is a Nashville-based researcher. He is currently pursuing a degree in International Relations from the Vanderbilt University.martin.averick@proton.me