Republican newcomer Tim Sheehy’s campaign to unseat the incumbent Democrat in the deep red Treasure State gains momentum as Nov. 5 election nears.
U.S. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has won three elections as a self-identified “dirt farmer from Big Sandy” working the land his grandfather homesteaded more than a century ago, touting his bona fides as a High Plains centrist in an era of increasing ideological polarity.
The moderate Democrat appears to be counting on split-ticket voting in his campaign for a fourth, six-year Senate term.
Tester, 68, the only statewide-elected Democrat in deep red Montana, has trailed Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, 38, in polls by increasing percentages since August and is the Republicans’ top target in flipping the Democrats’ 51–49 Senate majority.
In 2022’s midterms, the GOP defended 20 of 34 seats up for grabs in the split 50–50 chamber. In 2024, Democrats and the four independents who caucus with them are defending 23 of 33 available seats on Nov. 5.
Republicans need to flip only two seats to notch chamber leadership.
Tester entered the 2024 election cycle as one of three Democratic Party senators seeking re-election in states that President Donald Trump won in 2020, and where Trump is the overwhelming favorite to win in 2024.
Two-term Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va) became an independent and is retiring. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a Republican, is the overwhelming favorite to succeed him in a state where Trump garnered nearly 69 percent of the vote four years ago.
Three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is facing a “toss-up” challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno in Ohio, a former battleground state where the GOP is ascendant. Trump won by about 8 percent in both 2016 and 2020, Ohio’s largest deciding margins in a presidential race since 1988. The latter election was the first time since 1964 in which its voters didn’t select the winning presidential candidate.
Tester is seeking reelection in a supermajority GOP trifecta state where Trump won by 16.5 percentage points in 2020—nearly 21 percent in 2016—and that has been reliably Republican for decades. Voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the House since 1994 and only two Democrats since 1952—Bill Clinton in 1992 and Lyndon Johnson in 1964—have won presidential elections in Montana.
