President Trump won the New Hampshire primary by an impressive margin. But the behavior of independent voters may point to a problem for the general election.
CONCORD, N.H.—Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary with a record number of votes received, surpassing previous highs set by Bernie Sanders in 2016. The former president is now positioned as the presumptive Republican nominee, though the primary season is barely underway.
Despite his impressive vote total in the Jan. 23 Republican contest, the composition of that electorate—and of the coalition voting for his opponent—could have implications for a potential general election matchup between President Trump and President Joe Biden.
In short, New Hampshire’s independent voters, a coveted segment of the electorate, overwhelmingly supported Ms. Haley in the Republican primary.
Of the nation’s more than 160 million registered voters, only half are affiliated with a political party and are about evenly split between the Democrats and Republicans. The rest, 41 percent, are independents according to a 2023 Gallup report.
To win in November, any candidate will be likely to need the support of the majority of those independent voters.
Trump and Independents
Of voters who said they would participate in the New Hampshire Republican primary, 21 percent were Republicans dissatisfied with President Trump who said they would not vote for him, according to an AP VoteCast survey.
Of independent voters, 68 percent said they were dissatisfied with the former president and would not vote for him.
That breakdown fits with exit polls conducted on New Hampshire primary voters by CNN. That polling showed that registered Republicans accounted for 70 percent of his support while independents contributed 27 percent.
For Nikki Haley, those proportions were reversed, as 70 percent identified themselves as independents and 27 percent as registered Republicans.
For both candidates, 3 percent support came from voters who registered as Republicans on the day.
Voter interviews conducted by The Epoch Times confirmed that a significant number of independent voters chose to vote in the Republican primary not to support Ms. Haley but to vote against President Trump.
