Understanding the Demographic Shift That Pushed Trump to Victory

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President-elect Donald Trump managed to greatly increase his success with Gen Z voters aged 18 to 29, garnering 46 percent of this stratum.

President-elect Donald Trump has won greater support from nearly all demographic groups, but perhaps the most consequential one has been Gen Z voters aged 18 to 29.

Although the majority of young voters still turned out for his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump managed to greatly increase his success with this stratum, garnering 46 percent of its vote compared with 36 percent in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, a national poll conducted by the National Opinion Research Center before and on election day.

Trump also nearly doubled his support among black voters, receiving 15 percent of the votes compared with 8 percent in 2020, and improved with Hispanic voters (41 percent versus 35 percent). Those groups represented only 3 percent and 8 percent of the total votes he received, respectively, while the young voters made up 15 percent of his votes.

Harris tried to appeal to young voters, including by granting an interview to the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, which focuses on young women’s issues, including relationships and advice. But her approach didn’t appear to resonate enough.

What galvanized the electorate writ large was the economy. Young people haven’t been spared the throes of inflation, watching their income diminish in real terms since the Biden–Harris administration took office.

According to AP VoteCast, almost two in five voters identified the economy as the country’s most important issue. The proportion was slightly higher in the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.

Economic concerns lack an easy comparison to 2020, when voters were largely preoccupied with the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated restrictions.

This year, Trump hammered the economic argument, repeatedly raising his bid with proposals of no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime, and no taxes on social security. While the latter issue may not concern young voters, the first two easily could have. A typical tipped worker in the hospitality industry is younger than 30 years old.

He also promised to bring down consumer prices by increasing energy production.

By Petr Svab

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