Follow the money (if you can) in the Nov. 7 General Assembly elections, where campaigns and PACs are spending two, maybe three, times what they did in 2019
Politicos nationwide are watching Virginia’s General Assembly elections on Nov. 7 as a bellwether for the 2024 presidential primaries which begin three months later.
Analysts would have to sift through data after Election Day to tell what the Virginia races portend for the 2024 elections elsewhere. But one thing is certain right now: the state’s 2023 General Assembly campaign spending will double or triple the record-setting pace in 2019.
If the spending in Virginia is a barometer for the 2024 elections, the pace set there will affirm an ad agency prediction that the 2024 elections will be “the most expensive political cycle of all time.” AdImpact projected that campaigns nationwide will spend $10.2 billion for the 2024 cycle, a 13-percent increase over 2020’s record-setting elections. Some say that may be a conservative estimate.
The political industry has long watched how bellwether commonwealth’s voters cast ballots in state legislature elections every four Novembers before the Iowa January presidential caucuses for potential trends.
Virginia’s 2023 General Assembly elections are no different. According to FiveThirtyEight, Virginia, “has the only highly competitive state legislature” in the nation right now. “As a result,” the election rating service states, “only Virginia looks to see much drama” in its 2023 elections.
On Virginia’s Nov. 7 ballot are all 100 seats in the House of Delegates, now led 52-48 by the Republicans, and all 40 seats in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a 22-18 advantage.
Several patterns are surfacing in Virginia—the economy, abortion, and education are top issues; voter enthusiasm is lagging compared to 2020 or even 2022, but that could change; campaign spending, especially by “outside” national groups, is soaring.
A $300 Million Election?
More than one in four Virginians rated the economy as their top issue followed by inflation, abortion, and K-12 education, according to a Wason Center/Christopher Newport University survey conducted on Sept. 28-Oct. 11.
By John Haughey
