The presidential election of 2024 will be different than almost any other in our 241 year old history. Why? Because politicians have changed dramatically in the 21st Century. This year we may have, if things continue as present, two of the least desirable candidates that ever ran for president. Leaving an opening for a third party candidate to actually win the presidency.
The choice may not be what any of us want, but the people of America have a vote and so far the majority chooses none of the above.
At least that is how the centrist third party, No Labels, sees it. They believe that they can not only stop either Biden or Trump from reentering the White House, but place their candidate in their place. So far they have not announced who their candidates will be for President and Vice-president. However, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia seems to be in the running. All others are a secret.
But No Labels is not the only candidate running as a third party. Senator Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also running. Senator Kennedy is best known for opposing mandatory vaccinations. He has been badly maligned as passing misinformation on the Covid vaccine; however, everything he said has proven true, so who was really passing the misinformation? Nonetheless he has been, and still is, being treated like a traitor by the Democrat Party and their lackeys in the MSM.
The big question is can any third party win an election?
In 1860 the Republican Party won the presidency against three other parties; the Democrat, Southern Democrat, and Constitutional Union Party. The Democrat Party nominated Stephen A. Douglas of Illinois for President, but the southerners didn’t agree and nominated John C. Breckinridge of Kentucky for president on the Southern Democrat Ticket.
Also on the ballot was the Constitutional Union Party, in its only presidential attempt. It consisted mostly of conservative southerners who were the remnants of the Whig party, that opposed succession. Senator John Bell of Tennessee became their standard bearer. The Constitutional Union Party campaigned on a simple platform “to recognize no political principle other than the Constitution of the country, the Union of the states, and the Enforcement of the Laws”. Our entire nation stood on the brink of civil war and these four presidential candidates all thought that their platforms were what was going to save the union.
And you thought this election is scary. Two months after Lincoln was elected president this nation was enveloped in the bloody Civil War. The very same thing can happen in 2024, depending on the outcome of this election.
But how can a third party win today, when no other has since 1860?
It comes down to the electoral collage and how many votes each candidate wins. As you already know, it takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. That is only 37 votes less than Biden won in 2020, and 37 votes more than Trump won. So the magic number is 37. If Biden loses 37 electoral votes, and Trump doesn’t win 37 more, neither party will win the presidency.
What happens then?
It is called a contingent election and we have had three in our history. It is when the House of Representatives must vote among the top three winning candidates as to whom among them will become president. However, each Representative doesn’t get a vote, only one vote per state, and today it takes 26 states to elect a president. So, each state must decide among themselves which candidate will receive their vote.
Presently the House of Representatives is Republican by a slim majority, but this congress does not elect the president in a contingent election, the newly installed House will after being sworn in in January 2025. So whom we vote for in 2024 becomes even more important.
Even more compelling will be the vice-president. You see, the Senate elects the vice-president in a contingent election, and must choose between the top two vote getters for vice-president. Each senator has a vote. Currently there is a slim Democrat majority. In the 2024 election both the Senate and House are up for grabs. And who wins majorities in each chamber could decide who becomes president and vice-president. Hypothetically it could be Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as president and vice-president.
Now, if there is a stalemate for president and a vice-president is elected, that vice-president will temporarily run the nation until a president is elected by the House. Harris could become acting president until the House agrees on a president. If there is a stalemate for both, the Speaker of the House becomes the temporary president. So voting in 2024 is essential.
Currently 20 states are solid Republican, known as red states. Sixteen states can vote either way, called purple states, and the remaining 14 are solidly Democrat; called blue states. (https://www.270towin.com/content/blue-and-red-states). However, those 14 states have the largest share of electoral vote count.
The purple states; however, with the least electoral vote total, hold the key to the next president. And all tend to be more centrist. Neither Biden nor Trump are near the center. Whereas the No Labels candidate and Kennedy are both closer to the center.
In fact, if Trump wins 30 to 36 more electoral votes than in 2020, taking them away from Biden, and the No Labels candidate wins only one state, say Wisconsin with only ten votes, neither presidential candidate will win the necessary 270 votes and we go to a contingent election.
The prospect of neither Trump nor Biden winning the necessary 270 votes is good for centerist because both have such high negatives among voters. It may not be the best thing for America, or the world, but this is the conundrum we are in due to the present take no prisoners politics we presently have.
There are a plethora of opinion writers who will tell you that it is impossible for a third party candidate to win an election; but this writer will tell you that that is nonsense, especially in this election. We don’t have to look too far back to see that in 1968 George Wallace, running as a third party candidate, won five states, garnering 45 electoral votes.
If the No Labels candidate or Kennedy were able to do the same, we are in a contingent election. As for a sweep by President Trump, as happened in 1968 when Wallace ran against Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey and Nixon won by such a large electoral vote count, not needing Wallace’s 45 votes, there are just too many voters who are uncomfortable with Trump that this election will be close.
Trump was a great president
Yes, Trump was a great president, but there are many mixed emotions about him, mostly planted by the MSM who hate him. Nonetheless, those fears are there and given a choice, many will opt for someone else. And No Labels and Kennedy give them a choice. So much so that Democrats are spending millions to trash No Labels and Kennedy, as are Republicans; reminiscent of what happened to The Tea Party during Obama’s term.
Chaos is coming
It is still way too early to predict anything in this coming election except maybe total chaos. But this is one avenue that might just be taken. And who knows, if a No Labels candidate or Kennedy were to be chosen by Congress as our next president, we just might avoid both a Civil War and a world war.
Can you imagine the chaos in Congress trying to elect a president and vice-president? Just think about this Congress electing a Speaker of the House. A contingent election will be a long lasting free-for-all; but will be democracy in action.
In the meantime, between now and November 5, anything can happen from Michelle Obama becoming the Democrat candidate to Trump saying, or doing something so stupid, as Ross Perot did in 1992, that the entire makeup of this election changes. A political whirlwind is coming in the next several months with black swans around every corner. So making a credible prediction at this point as to an outcome is impossible.
My prediction for the election of 2024 is that anything can happen. Almost anything will happen. Dirty tricks are going to be abundant. And, it is going to be one heck of a ride, so buckle up and see where we go from here.
